While these data sources all measure different degrees of openness, one result is strikingly similar: All three suggest that the openly gay population is dramatically higher in more tolerant states, defined using an estimate by Nate Silver of support for same-sex marriage.
While none of these data sources are ideal, they combine to tell a consistent story.
At least 5 percent of American men, I estimate, are predominantly attracted to men, and millions of gay men still live, to some degree, in the closet.
Because high school students are less mobile than adults, this suggests that a gay exodus from these areas is not a large factor.
We can approach the question of whether intolerant areas actually have fewer gay men another way, too, by estimating the percent of searches for pornography that are looking for depictions of gay men.
Gay men are half as likely as straight men to acknowledge their sexuality on social networks.